A Small Man Getting Smaller
Two months ago, I wrote that Donald Trump’s possible conviction in the election-interference case now being heard in a Manhattan courtroom would not drive many voters away from the former president. MAGA devotees, and even some fence-straddling voters, would likely view, I thought, the case as insignificant since all it involved was Trump paying off a porn star to save his wife embarrassment. (Of course, the case is about far more than “hush money.” Trump is on trial for election interference.)
I was wrong. I now think that the ongoing trial will fatally hurt Trump’s election chances in November. The former president will not be harmed because of the facts of the case (or a conviction necessarily, for that matter), though much may come out that is salacious and seamy. (But everyone knows that about Trump anyway.) The trial will wound him because Trump is diminishing in front of us. It is as if a hole was poked in the balloon of his image, and all the toxic air is whooshing out.
Trump is a small man getting smaller as the trial continues. Small because of his bullying persona. Small because of his pettiness, his grudges, his lack of curiosity, his transactional relationships, his utter lack of empathy, his unwillingness to show loyalty to even his most loyal and sycophantic followers, and his inability to admit he is wrong.
But Trump has always projected power. He is physically imposing. He has succeeded in defying career-ending controversies. The “Access Hollywood” tape would have ended anyone else’s political career, but not Trump’s. The same can be said about any number of other missteps, from his racist comments (“there were very fine people on both sides”) to his misogyny and xenophobia. I could go on, but his status today as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee proves he truly is the “Teflon Don.”
Until now, that is. A forever blowhard, Trump is forced to sit mutely in court four days a week. He is under a gag order that limits what he can say about the trial (though he repeatedly has violated it). He is not in control in the courtroom. The judge is. Pictures from the trial reveal a face showing its age and a drawn, gloomy, tired, and dare I write hopeless mien? He reportedly fell asleep several times last week. Outside the courthouse, he recites, like a robot, the now-familiar accusations that the trial is a “scam,” a “witch hunt,” a “hoax” perpetrated by the Biden administration. He evidently was displeased that when he arrived at court for opening arguments Monday there was no crush of MAGA supporters to condemn the trial and defend their cult leader. He had tried to lure demonstrators with claims that his legal problems were a threat to America. There were not many buyers, though the former president tried to save face by falsely claiming that authorities had denied his supporters access.
Some disagree with my analysis. Stuart Stevens is a former Republican political consultant and a veteran of many past campaigns, including the presidential runs of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. So when Stevens speaks, political junkies should listen to what he says. (He is also an adviser to the anti-Trump Lincoln Project.)
Stevens argues that the trial is “a gift from the political gods.” Trump is, after all, a candidate of “anger and grievance” who loves to play the role of “the wronged man seeking justice from corrupt, powerful forces.” Trump excels at this act, and he will play it to the hilt. “The trial will afford Mr. Trump,” Stevens writes in an op-ed in The New York Times, “the opportunity to define the essence of his candidacy: I am a victim.” The Trump campaign, Stevens rightly points out, is not about voter persuasion. Rather, Trump depends on stirring up voter anger, which the trial may well do.
Stevens makes another point. Trump may complain that the trial’s four-day-a-week schedule keeps him off the campaign trail and away from those big rallies he loves, but the enforced absence may be good for the former president. TheTrumpian shtick is getting a little tired by this point. News coverage of the rallies has been down in recent months, and Trump loyalists do not seem as enthusiastic as they once were to listen to Trumpian word salad. Stevens points out that Joe Biden, who received more votes than any other presidential candidate in history, campaigned in 2020 mostly from his basement. Trump’s campaign advisers have taken note.
I respectfully disagree with Stevens. (I may be forced to eat crow, though I hope not, both for the sake of my palate and the country’s well-being.) Trump is not Biden. COVID drove Biden off the campaign trail, which is something, I think, most voters understood and with which they sympathized. Trump is absent from campaigning because he is on trial for alleged criminal actions.
Voters seem to be getting that. A just-released Quinnipiac Poll, which has Trump and Biden in a dead heat, shows that 60 percent of respondents “think the charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress,” are serious (40 percent say very serious, 20 percent somewhat serious). A majority of voters believe Trump acted illegally or unethically. Only 18 percent say the former president “did not do anything wrong.”
As the trial goes on, the number of Americans who think the charges are serious likely will go up. More sordid details will emerge about Trump’s character (or, rather, lack thereof) and his powerlessness will become more evident. The man who loves to be in control is at the mercy of others. The small man will become even smaller.
Trump on trial reminds me of the ending of The Wizard of Oz when Toto pulls back the curtain to reveal an ordinary man playing at being a wizard. “You’re a very bad man,” Dorothy says to the fake wizard. “No, my dear,” he responds, “I’m a very good man. I’m just a very bad wizard.” But Trump cannot even make that claim. He is a very bad man. And he was a very bad president who now is a very bad presidential candidate.
Posted April 26, 2024