A Tale of Two Parties
Journalists who write as events happen and historians who research and interpret later, after the dust has settled, often look at the big picture, highlighting major developments to try to put their subjects and/or theses in perspective. But, sometimes, it is the minor occurrences, things that are easy to miss, that when added up, tell an interesting story.
This week, there has been a bevy of stories, none earthshaking if looked at alone, but when viewed in tandem reveal a trend that suggests the two major political parties are moving in opposite directions: Democrats toward greater inclusiveness and cohesion; Republicans toward exclusiveness and disarray.
In 1967, Ronald Reagan, then governor of California, bragged that “the Republican Party… is a broad party. There is room in our tent for many views.” Today, Reagan’s “big tent” has shrunk to an isolation booth. Where Reagan’s “big tent” tolerated “many arguments and divisions over approach and method,” Donald Trump’s cult of personality enforces ideological purity. At the Republican National Committee, for example, only election deniers need apply. According to Josh Dawsey in The Washington Post, job interviewees are asked if they believe the 2020 election was stolen. Lying on behalf of Trump, apparently, has become the litmus test for hiring at the RNC.
Ideological purity at the RNC explains why Ronna McDaniel was pushed out as chair, to be replaced by diehard Trump loyalists, including his daughter-in-law. McDaniel was not shy about promulgating the big election-denying lie, but she, apparently, did not lie with enough vigor and enthusiasm to satisfy Trump.
To insure uniformity, Trump backs only candidates who push election denialism, while purging so-called RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) from the party. This exclusiveness may build a cadre of devoted Trump supporters, but is it a recipe for election success? Ronald Reagan thought not.
Insistence on ideological conformity has shaken several state Republican Parties, including two in key, battleground states. In Michigan earlier this week, Trump urged Republicans to target Black voters in Detroit. Attracting Black voters may be a wise move, but Trump’s appeal was to a state party that is convulsed by infighting between two factions that are trying to outdo each other in loyalty to the former president. One faction, infinitesimally less whackadoodle than the other, is led by Peter Hoekstra, a former member of Congress. Kristina Karamo heads the other faction, which has gone off the political deep end. As putative head of the state party, Karamo has linked gun reform to the Holocaust, endorsing a meme posted on social media showing wedding rings removed by Germans from victims of the Holocaust with a text reading: “Before they collected all these wedding rings … They collected all the guns.”
Trump backs the Hoekstra faction, but the infighting has to displease him since it leaves the party paralyzed in a battleground state Trump has a good chance of carrying in November. Michigan’s large Arab-American population — which usually votes Democratic — is unhappy with the Biden administration’s support of Israel’s war in Gaza. But Republican disarray could well dim the former president’s prospects in Michigan.
Matters are even worse in Arizona. Trump acolyte Kari Lake, a vociferous election denier, employed Trump’s tactic of never conceding when she lost her race for governor in 2022. Now a candidate for the Senate, she has admitted defaming Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer, a fellow Republican, when she claimed he “sabotaged” her election chances in 2022. Lake made her admission, apparently, to head off a trial, preferring to admit slandering Richer rather than allowing the introduction of potentially damaging emails, texts, and recordings in court. (Lake previously received widespread condemnation for releasing a recording she made of a fellow Republican allegedly trying to bribe her into not running for the Senate.)
Divisions in Arizona between pro-Trump, election-denying activists and old line, more traditional conservatives have left the state Republican party broke and asking the RNC for financial help. Some of the divisions revolve around Lake, who is a polarizing force. But whatever the causes, intra-party rivalries and financial woes may push Arizona into President Joe Biden’s column.
Speaking of money, one of the major divergences between the two parties is fundraising. The Democratic Party’s war chest far exceeds the amount of money that the Trump campaign has raised. Lack of money — and the drain on Trump’s finances and party coffers caused by his myriad legal woes — may explain why Trump, the ultimate grifter, has taken to hawking Bibles. Trump has diverted millions of dollars from the Republican National Committee to a PAC that pays his legal bills, as well as funneling donations to his campaign to finance his legal defense. The need for money intensified this week when the judge in Trump’s hush money trial fixed a start date of April 15.
The money gap widened Thursday when Biden appeared at a fundraiser with former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, raising more than $26 million, a record for a single event. Not only are Obama and Clinton proven fund raisers, their appearance together with Biden demonstrates Democratic solidarity in stark contrast to Republican disunity. Imagine Trump appearing on the same stage with the only living Republican former president! I cannot, especially given George W. Bush’s memorable assessment of Trump’s “American carnage” Inaugural Address: “That was some weird shit!”
Recent Democratic electoral victories in conservatives states like Ohio, Kentucky, and Kansas have sent a signal that Democratic chances improve when reproductive rights are an issue. That trend continued this week when Democrat Marilyn Lands won a seat in deep red Alabama's state legislature. Lands stressed access to abortion and in vitro fertilization in her campaign. She not only won, but she won big — beating her Republican opponent by 25 percentage points.
Lately, Democrats have been losing in the polls while winning elections. Now, there is some evidence that Biden is catching up to his opponent. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows the incumbent closing the gap with the former president in six of seven swing states. Other polls show Biden moving up with Trump losing support.
None of these events, by themselves, will swing the election one way or the other. But taken together, they may be evidence of a changing dynamic in the 2024 race for the White House. Democrats appear far more united than Republicans, though there is the caveat that Biden’s support for Israel has alienated Arab-Americans and progressive Democrats. (The recent U.S. abstention in a U.N. Security Council vote calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza may indicate Biden is getting the message.)
Democrats are more united, perhaps, more inclusive, definitely, and the party is wealthier, certainly, than Republicans. Though the election is still more than half a year away, the trend lines are becoming clear.
Still, this is no time for complacency. We must get out the vote! America will not survive a second Trump presidency.
Posted March 29, 2024