The year was 1948. That spring, Harry Truman’s approval rating stood at 36 percent. He was an accidental president, assuming the office when Franklin Roosevelt died in 1945. Inflation was rampant, and the public had become increasingly disenchanted after 16 years of Democratic Party governance. Few gave Truman any chance in the November presidential election, and most Democratic operatives were reconciled to a victory for Truman’s likely Republican challenger, Governor Thomas Dewey of New York.
Yet “Give ‘em Hell, Harry” pulled off a stunning upset. His path to victory — against all odds — just might provide a template for beleaguered Democratic President Joe Biden.
Truman and Biden faced similar problems and difficulties six months before the general election. Both had very low approval ratings, mired in the mid-thirty-percent range. Both were plagued by high inflation. The end of war-time rationing and price controls unleashed a huge inflationary spiral eerily similar to the supply-chain disruptions that caused high inflation during the COVID pandemic. The inflation rate has come down in recent months, but consumers are still reeling from the high rates early in Biden’s administration, and food and energy prices remain higher than they had been.
Both presidents encountered similar international issues. Truman had to convince many Americans, mostly Republicans — who yearned for a return to the isolationism that traditionally characterized American foreign policy — to invest heavily in Europe as the Cold War with the Soviet Union heated up. (The Marshall Plan was announced in June 1947.) Biden, too, needs to persuade the political right to support his attempts to arm Ukraine to stave off Russian territorial aggression. Where Republicans in 1947 were isolationists, today’s opposition is openly pro-Russian, making Biden’s task arguably harder.
Israel posed problems for Truman, as it does for Biden today. While Biden is wrestling with progressive Democratic voters — and usually Democratic-leaning Arab-American voters — uneasy with his decision to arm Israel in its war with Hamas, Truman’s problems stemmed from his decision to recognize Israel upon its founding in 1948. Truman supported Israeli statehood despite his own ingrained antisemitism — documented in David MCullough’s biography of the Missourian — as well as the historic anti-Jewish bias of the State Department (though of the more gentlemanly, polite variety than that afflicting today’s Republican Party).
Like Truman, Biden faces challenges from within his own party. In 1948, left-wing Democrats rallied around around the candidacy of former Vice President Henry Wallace while southern segregationists backed Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond, then governor of South Carolina. Biden, too, may lose support on his right flank to the conspiracy theorist Robert Kennedy, and because they are unhappy that Biden is not doing more to rein in Israel in its war in Gaza and displeased that Biden’s liberal agenda is not more liberal, progressive Democrats may defect to third parties or stay home. Biden also is bleeding support among traditional Democratic constituencies such as Black and Latino voters.
Truman won, in part, by running against the so-called “do-nothing” Republican-controlled Congress that refused to consider any of his policy initiatives. But if the Congress elected in 1946 was infamous for sitting on its hands, what of the current Congress? Ukraine aid cannot get a vote on the floor of the House. Israeli aid has been mismanaged by a neophyte speaker. And legislation aimed at addressing the broken immigration system was killed by Republicans — after Democrats agreed to most of what the GOP wanted — because former President Donald Trump wants immigration to remain a political issue come November. Instead of legislating, the Republican-dominated House has probed alleged Biden corruption, impeached the secretary of Homeland Security for doing his job, and tried to impeach the president. Lacking any evidence of presidential wrongdoing, Republicans now are considering criminal referrals to the Justice Department, even though Justice has a long-standing policy against prosecuting sitting presidents. All this at taxpayer expense while failing to legislate a damn thing!
Truman bashed Republicans for blocking his reformist Fair Deal. He accused the GOP of aligning with “big-business lobbyists and speculators” who favored “low prices for farmers, cheap wages for labor, and high profits for big corporations.” On foreign policy, Truman took Republicans to task for opposing assistance to Greece, which was combatting a communist insurgency, and Turkey, in dire need of financial help, and opposing the Marshall Plan. Biden can do the the same, portraying Republicans as being in the pocket of entrenched economic interests. He can also blast his opponent for his anti-democratic tendencies and ardor for authoritarian despots. Biden has already done some of this, but he must do more.
Truman ran as a champion of civil rights, calling for federal legislation outlawing lynching and the poll tax and banning segregation in interstate transportation. The modern version of Truman’s support of civil rights is reproductive rights. Republican attacks on abortion rights have fueled Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections. Popular anger over attacks on reproductive rights just might help Biden win critical swing states.
Like Truman, Biden owns the political center despite running on what is probably the most liberal major party agenda in modern American history. Biden can run as a centrist because his opponent persists in rehashing past grievances, expresses anti-democratic admiration for tyrants, continues to appeal to bigotry, uses fascist tropes, and threatens to undermine American democracy if elected in November.
A Biden victory is no sure thing. Trump appeals to the rage and discontent of many American voters. But if Biden can emulate “Give ‘em Hell, Harry” he may prevail. Just as Truman overcame the odds against him, Biden may yet fool the prognosticators.
Give ‘em hell, Joe!
Posted March 15, 2024
I agree that Truman has a lot of lessons to teach Biden and Democrats. His victory in 1948 was amazing. Also, his decision not to run for a third term.