Love at 15th Sight
“If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody could convict you,” Lindsey Graham, speaking at the Washington Press Club Foundation’s 72nd Congressional Dinner, February 25, 2016.
“He was my 15th choice. What can I say?” Lindsey Graham, explaining his endorsement of Ted Cruz for president, March 23, 2016.
What a difference a month makes! What a difference fear of Donald Trump makes! Endorsing Ted Cruz “tells you everything you need to know about Donald Trump,” the South Carolina Republican senator added in an appearance on The Daily Show.
Graham is not alone in his less-than-enthusiastic endorsement of the arguably most hated senator in Washington. Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush also have given Cruz a half thumbs up, with Bush taking to social media instead of holding a more traditional news conference, which would have required the two men to appear side-by-side, to praise the Texas senator for not being Trump. “For the sake of our party and country, we must overcome the divisiveness and vulgarity Donald Trump has brought into the political arena,” Bush wrote on his Facebook page.
For these representatives of the Republican establishment Trump vs. Cruz is the battle of who is less loathsome. Much as they dislike Cruz, they fear Trump. Of course, not all the recent converts to Cruz’s corner actually want him to secure the GOP nomination. Many anti-Trumpistas hope that by backing Cruz they can prevent Trump from having enough delegates to win the nomination in the first round, forcing a contested convention. Romney said as much when he announced he was voting for Cruz in the Utah caucus because, he explained, "The only path that remains to nominate a Republican rather than Mr. Trump is to have an open convention. At this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for Senator Cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible.”
A more palatable and electable candidate might emerge from a contested convention, according to this line of thought. Perhaps, a deadlocked convention might turn to Paul Ryan or Romney to lead the Republican Party back to respectability after its flirtation with Trumpism. Or John Kasich might emerge as a compromise choice after the failure of Trump or Cruz to secure enough votes to win the nomination.
Of course, in an open convention, Cruz might emerge the victor. That would be bad for the party, goes the establishment’s reasoning, because Cruz would lose the presidency. But then again, establishment Republicans also expect Trump to lose — and to lose in a far uglier and more divisive manner that would endanger GOP control of the Senate and the House and have dangerous repercussions for the Republican Party for decades. Trump’s racism, xenophobia, and misogyny would scare away so many constituencies — young voters, women, Hispanics, and other minorities — that he would not leave Republicans with much of a party to rebuild.
Republicans lost the Hispanic vote by 71 percent to 27 percent in 2012. Trump’s threats to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants make him even less popular among Latinos. One recent poll shows the New York real estate mogul winning only 16 percent of the Latino vote in a matchup with Hillary Clinton (and the percentage of Latino voters increases in every election). Similarly, 73 percent of registered women voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 47 percent of Republican women say they could not support him.
Trump scares away the youth vote to such an extent that his candidacy might damage the party for a generation or more. One poll found Clinton leading Trump among respondents under 35 by 52 percent to 19 percent. Young people generally are more immune than their elders to Trump’s appeals to ethnic and racial resentment. Republicans have lost the youth vote for the last several elections, but a Trump candidacy might drive so many young voters to the Democratic Party as to weaken the GOP for decades.
A Cruz loss would be less catastrophic, allowing the party to live to fight another day. Cruz probably would have a less disastrous affect than Trump on the rest of the Republican ticket. Besides, establishment Republicans see a virtue in a possible Cruz candidacy in that it would be a test of the appeal of a far-right conservative to the electorate. Movement conservatives like Cruz argue the reason the GOP lost in 2008 and 2012 is because the party nominated moderate Republicans — John McCain and Romney — instead of true conservatives. If Cruz were nominated and then lost, ultra conservatives would be robbed of that rationale in future elections, and the establishment could go back to comfortably naming the Republican nominee in the future — if the party has a future.
To be sure, Trump has received some endorsements. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Florida Governor Rick Scott, and Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama are some of the biggest names to come out in favor of the reality TV star. But, Cruz’s endorsement list is much bigger, but not because of any sudden outpouring of love for the Texas senator.
Politics often involves choosing between the lesser of two evils, but never have the evils been, well, so evil. Pity the GOP voter, stuck with the 15th best choice.
Posted March 29, 2016