Multiple Miscalculations
Russian strongman Vladimir Putin underestimated the response of Ukrainians, Russians, and the rest of the world to his invasion of Ukraine.
Former President Donald Trump is not the best judge of character. So, it is not surprising that Trump got it all wrong when he called the maneuvering of Russian President Vladimir Putin before the invasion of Ukraine proof of Putin’s “genius” and “savvy.” Far from it! If anything, the Russian attack on Ukraine reveals a series of miscalculations by the Russian strongman.
— Miscalculation No. 1: Putin banked on a quick Russian victory. But, after a week of fighting, the vaunted Russian military machine has not captured any major city nor pushed the Ukrainians into surrendering. The Russian air force, the second largest in the world, has yet to win control of the skies. Its warplanes have been shot down. Logistical supply chains have been stretched to their limits, leaving troops stranded on roadsides when their transports ran out of fuel.
Much of this probably is a result of Putin’s hubris: Expecting an easy time slicing into the Ukrainian countryside, the Russians did not commit sufficient manpower or supplies. The Russians may yet bring their military superiority to bear, cowing Ukraine into submission. But, the longer the war goes on, the worse for Putin as opposition at home and abroad will only intensify.
— Miscalculation No. 2: Putin did not anticipate fierce resistance from Ukrainians. Putin is an intense nationalist, so it is rather mystifying that he would shortchange the nationalism of others. But, his shortsightedness may be proof that he is a victim of his own propaganda. In the run up to the invasion, Putin made much of the Russian view that “Ukraine is not a country," but rather an historic part of Russia. His dim view of Ukrainian nationalism may stem from his misguided historical analysis, leading him to conclude the Ukrainians would not fight for their “make believe” country.
—Miscalculation No. 3: Putin expected little or no pushback at home. Instead, massive protests have taken place in Russian cities. Reuters reports that more than five-thousand people have been detained in Russia and that anti-war protests have taken place in 48 cities across Russia since the invasion began. And, Russian opposition is like to intensify the longer the war goes on. Putin may be able to control the internet and Russian media to limit the images of war that reach Russians, but he cannot hide the knowledge of dead Russian soldiers coming home in bodybags. Nor will he be able to downplay the economic havoc wreaked by sanctions leveled by the international community. Already, the Russian stock market has plummeted, the ruble is weak, inflation is a problem, and goods are in short supply. Worse is yet to come.
Putin may find more than public opinion turning against him. News reports suggest that some members, at least, of his inner circle may be skeptical of the wisdom of his Ukrainian adventurism. To be sure, Putin is top dog, for now, but no leader can govern alone. If he loses the support of his key advisers — not to mention the oligarchs disenchanted by the tanking economy, travel bans, and their isolation from Western goods and services — his days may be numbered. Putin ought to heed the example of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, who was deposed in 1964 by his fellow Communist Party leaders for, among other things, reckless behavior on the international stage, particularly for his role in the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.
— Miscalculation No. 4: Putin underestimated U.S. President Joe Biden, who has rallied the NATO alliance after his predecessor almost destroyed it and who has been steely in his insistence that the rest of the world impose the toughest sanctions possible. Biden’s decision to release important elements of American intelligence predicting Putin’s actions alerted everyone to Russia’s intentions. The evidence America made public prevented Putin from concocting a “false flag” incident as a pretext for unleashing Russian troops.
— Miscalculation No 5: Putin probably expected some Western sanctions, but I doubt whether he anticipated the nearly global condemnation of his attack and the severity of the sanctions imposed by many countries. The unified response has isolated Russia economically and politically from the rest of the world, and the pain it will cause to ordinary Russians and the oligarchs who prop up Putin may be too much for either to withstand.
— Miscalculation No. 6: Related to the above miscalculation is the response of Putin’s fellow kleptocrats around the world. I was tempted at first to see Putin’s invasion and the response of the Western democracies as part of the modern struggle between the democracies and autocracies. That conflict is real, but in this instance Putin seems to be standing alone. Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s strongman, initially described Moscow’s demands on its neighbor as reasonable, but has since said Hungary condemns the invasion. A number of other right-wing leaders, in power or challenging those in power, have followed suit in their criticisms of Putin.
The same holds true for some — but not all — on the American right. Initially, Trump and others praised Putin, but attitudes have changed in the days following the initial invasion. At a conservative conference Saturday, Trump said Ukraine’s “sovereignty must be defended at all costs,” but he mindlessly criticized the Biden administration for caring more about “citizens of a distant nation than our own citizens.” Fox News personality Tucker Carlson, who has an affinity for the world’s autocrats, blamed Putin for possibly initiating a world war after earlier referring to the conflict as a “border dispute.”
If Trump wants to praise a “savvy” world leader, he ought to look to Putin’s adversary, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who Trump once unsuccessfully tried to bully into investigating Biden’s son. Zelensky would not be bullied by Trump, and he has refused to be bullied by Putin. He has shown remarkable courage in rallying his fellow Ukrainians. It is also of some significance that Zelensky is Jewish in a country whose history of antisemitism is, sadly, well known. That Zelensky rose to the presidency and has inspired his fellow citizens is an indication of how far Ukraine has come in the post-Soviet era as an emerging diverse, democratic nation. Putin’s failure to appreciate Ukraine’s civic development may be his biggest miscalculation of all.
Putin’s underestimation of his Ukrainian opponents, added to all his other miscalculations, may mean his long reign as the ruler of Russia may be nearing its end.
Posted March 1, 2022