The Austrian Formula
The international agreement in 1955 ending the four-power occupation of Austria might be a guide to resolving the international status of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admits his country will not join NATO. “It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO; we understand this,” Zelensky said earlier this week. “For years we heard about the apparently open door, but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged.”
Possible NATO membership for Ukraine is one of the reasons Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify invading his neighbor. In the past, Ukraine has wavered on joining the military alliance. In 2008, at a NATO summit in Bucharest, the members welcomed the aspirations of Ukraine, along with Georgia, to join, agreeing that “these countries will become members of NATO.”
In 2010, Ukraine had a president, Viktor Yanukovych, who was friendly to Moscow, and the country’s parliament voted for Ukraine to remain non-aligned. But, the geopolitical situation changed in 2014 with the ouster of Yanukovych and Russia’s seizure of Crimea. In response, Ukraine actively sought NATO membership. As recently as the middle of last month, Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, pointing out that the goal of alliance membership is enshrined in the country’s Constitution.
Russian bombs have changed matters again, forcing Zelensky to concede that Ukraine will not be part of NATO, at least not any time soon. Besides, while the alliance has no wish to allow Moscow to dictate the terms of who can be and cannot be a member of NATO, there is no desire among current members to expand NATO further. The reason is practical: If Ukraine were a NATO member, the alliance would be obligated to militarily defend it against Russia, or any other adversary.
So, does recognition by all parties concerned that Ukraine is not joining NATO provide a path to a diplomatic solution to the war? Perhaps, though Putin has offered many conflicting and muddled rationales for his brutal attack on Ukraine. While the Russian dictator has stressed NATO expansion as a Russian concern, he has also talked and written about the supposed historic unity between Russians and Ukrainians, and he has denied that there is an historical Ukrainian nation.
Whether Putin will push aside his issue of Ukrainian nationhood and accept Ukraine’s concession that it will not be a member of NATO as sufficient to begin negotiations to end the war is unknown. Perhaps, Putin will do just that once he realizes he cannot militarily win and occupy Ukraine. Maybe, he will agree to talks when the economic price Russia is paying becomes too high.
None of this is clear, but what is apparent is that any diplomatic solution must revolve around settling the question of Ukraine’s relationship to both the Western alliance and Russia. That means, in the end, some form of Ukrainian neutrality that preserves Ukrainian nationhood but satisfies Russian concerns, real or imagined, that an independent Kyiv is a threat to Moscow. A diplomatic formula, then, would revolve around a neutral Ukraine that is democratic and integrated into the European Union but which will never join NATO.
Europe has two models of neutral nations that Ukraine might emulate: Austria and Finland. Of the two, Austria provides the clearest and best example of a nation that has maintained its neutrality while pursuing economic and political alignment with the West.
Austria, which had been part of the Third Reich after the Anschluss of 1938 brought it under the control of Nazi Germany, was occupied by the four victorious powers after World War II: The United States, Britain, France, and the Soviet Union. Allied occupation ended in 1955 when the Soviet Union, along with the other occupying countries, recognized Austria’s sovereignty. In exchange, Austria agreed to permanent military neutrality and the understanding that Austria would not join NATO and would not allow foreign troops to be stationed on its soil. The agreement permitted Austria to determine its own economic and political future, and so, today, neutral Austria is a member of the European Union, fully integrated into the West.
Of course, there are differences between Austria in 1955 and Ukraine today. Austria was not under attack by the Soviet Union in 1955. Also, Austria does not share a border with Russia, though at the time it bordered several member nations of the Warsaw Alliance, the Soviet Union’s answer to NATO.
The experience of Finland also has been cited as a possible model for Ukraine. Finland and Russia share a long border, and French President Emmanuel Macron suggested “Finlandization” as a Ukrainian solution during his unsuccessful shuttle diplomacy before Russia invaded Ukraine. Though the Finns have managed slowly but surely to limit Moscow’s influence in their country, Macron’s offhand comment that “Finlandization” “is one of the options on the table” raised the possibility anew.
A bit of history: Russia ruled Finland under the Tsars from 1809 to 1917. Many of the buildings in Helsinki today reflect the influence of Russian-style architecture, and a statue of Tsar Alexander II still stands in front of Helsinki Cathedral. Finland gained its independence after the Bolshevik revolution, and it was careful not to antagonize its powerful neighbor to the east. In 1939, the non-aggression pact between Germany and the Soviet Union placed Finland, under a secret protocol, within the Soviet sphere of interest. In late 1939, the Soviets invaded Finland. The “Winter War” ended with Finland ceding a swath of territory in its southeast, near Leningrad (now St. Petersburg).
Finland maintained its independence, but at the cost, for decades, of granting the Soviet Union outsized influence over Finnish foreign policy, and Finnish leaders were careful not to antagonize the Soviets, either by word or deed. The end of the Cold War more than 30 years ago changed the relationship. Today, Finland is a well-armed country, possesses a generous welfare state, and is fully integrated into Europe as a member of the European Union. And, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted the Finns to reconsider NATO membership, though Finland has not formally applied for membership.
The Finland of today probably does not provide a guide for Ukraine. But, the Austrian agreement of 1955 might just be the template to end the Russian invasion. The Ukrainians might be amenable to an Austrian-style solution. Whether Putin would accept it is another matter.
Posted March 18, 2022