Trump May Yet Get Away With It
We may never know if the fix was in, but the Supreme Court’s decision to rule on whether presidents enjoy almost total immunity from prosecution sure smells fishy. At the very least, the slow-walking schedule the court set virtually guarantees that voters will not get to hear the evidence that Donald Trump intended to subvert the last election before deciding whether to vote for him in the next.
The justices did not have to take the case. The court — which tilts very conservative after Trump filled three seats — could have let stand the appellate court’s decision that presidents do not enjoy absolute immunity. “This is a momentous decision, just to hear this case,” conservative Judge Michael Luttig said. “There was no reason in this world for the Supreme Court to take this case…. Under the constitutional laws of the United States, there has never been an argument that a former president is immune from prosecution for crimes that he committed while in office.”
Even if the court were to rule against Trump’s immunity claims — a very distinct possibility — it will not mitigate the damage done by delaying the case. The court took nearly three weeks before ruling to hear the case. Now, it will not hear arguments until April 22, with a ruling before the end of the term unlikely. Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is presiding over Trump’s trial for his role in trying to overturn the 2020 election, has already stated that Trump is entitled to sufficient time to prepare his defense. That means that even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump, his trial in district court probably will not begin before late September or early October, at the earliest. By that time, some states will have started early voting, and since the trial is expected to last six to eight weeks, a verdict likely would come after the polls are closed.
A delay in the trial was not inevitable. The Supreme Court could have taken up this issue in December. That is when special counsel Jack Smith urged the justices to intervene before the federal appeals court ruled on Judge Chutkan’s denial of Trump’s motion to dismiss the charges against him because he is immune from prosecution. The court declined to heed Smith’s request. Alternatively, as indicated above, the court could have let the appellate court’s decision stand since Trump’s claim of absolute immunity is frivolous, to say the least. Finally, the court could have fast-tracked the process, as it did in Bush v. Gore in 2000.
But, instead, the Supreme Court has decided to take its time. As the saying goes, justice delayed is justice denied.
And justice will certainly be denied if Trump wins the election. Newly inaugurated President Donald Trump would use the powers of his office to shut down any and all trials where he has authority to do so.
Trump may well win in November. A new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Trump defeating President Joe Biden by five points and, most significantly, the former president ahead of the current one in all seven swing states.
The good news for Trump does not stop with the Supreme Court giving him a big win in slowing the clock and the polls showing him leading in the head-to-head general election against Biden. Other good news for Trump — bad for the rest of us who believe in the rule of law — is that the pieces are falling in place as Trump tightens his control over the Republican Party. A fully loyal Republican Party would be a fully compliant tool for him to use as president to upend American democracy.
As I have written before, Trump is solidifying his control of the Republican National Committee. Current RNC chair Ronna McDaniel is stepping down on March 8, to be replaced by Trump loyalists, including his daughter-in-law. Loyalists have been installed in leadership posts at the state level, where they continue to push the big lie that the 2020 election was stolen. Some of these loyalists are poised to aid Trump in manipulating the system to insure his election in November.
Trump-supporting far-right radicals control the House, refusing to permit legislation that does not incorporate their demands and electing Mike Johnson — a Trump loyalist — as speaker. And Trump may gain greater control over the Senate — the only place left where some in the GOP offered a bit of resistance to Trump — with the announcement Wednesday that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is stepping down at the end of the year from his leadership post. The extremist House Freedom Caucus revealed the significance of McConnell’s decision in a nasty prompt tweet: “Our thoughts are with our Democrat colleagues in the Senate on the retirement of their Co-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (D-Ukraine). No need to wait till November…Senate Republicans should IMMEDIATELY elect a *Republican* Minority Leader.”
McConnell is 82 and visibly ill. He never got along well with Trump, even though his wife, Elaine Chao, served as Trump’s secretary of transportation. But they did work together to inflict damage on the nation with the appointment of three hard-right justices to the Supreme Court and placing conservative judges on lower federal courts. The irony here is that McConnell’s machinations in keeping Merrick Garland off the court and ramming Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination through the Senate paved the way for this week’s Supreme Court decision freezing the clock on Trump’s insurrection trial.
McConnell thought Trump was done after the January 6 insurrection. “I feel exhilarated by the fact that this fellow finally, totally discredited himself,” McConnell once said. “He put a gun to his head and pulled the trigger.” Yet McConnell refused to pull his own trigger, declining to vote to convict Trump after the latter was impeached for his actions on January 6. McConnell clutched to the dubious theory that Trump could not be convicted since he already was out of office. (Never mind that McConnell took steps to insure that the Senate trial was delayed long enough for Trump to leave office.)
McConnell cannot escape history. As an old-guard Republican — in favor of lower taxes and a social conservative — McConnell played a huge role in guaranteeing Republicans control the judiciary for decades to come, regardless of which party holds power in the other two branches of the federal government. And, now, the far right judiciary has given Trump a big boost in his quest for power.
It should have been an easy decision for the Supreme Court to make: Presidents, once they leave office, are like every other American, not immune from prosecution for criminal offenses. Instead, Trump’s and McConnell’s far right court has taken a step that increases the possibility that Trump will never be held accountable for his crimes.
Trump may yet get away with it, and we will all suffer because of that. Quite simply, if Trump wins, America loses.
Posted March 1, 2024